COVID-19 in Illinois: Weekend Update with Jeff

by Sandra Folarin and Jeffrey Softcheck, MBA

Beginning November 6th, IDPH began to report lab confirmed cases and probable COVID cases combined. Lab confirmed cases are those that have been confirmed via molecular testing and probable cases are those that meet clinical criteria AND are epidemiologically-linked, or those that have a positive antigen test. This causes some confusion in number reporting, as probable cases looked like an additional 200-350 new cases, or an increase in 0.33%. For example, today’s case rate of 12.64% may actually be closer to 12.30%, which is still way too high. Moving forward, assume a few hundred extra cases in the numbers each day, with that reflecting presumed cases. As shown above, this will have a minimal impact on the overall positivity rate.

 For now, the only thing that truly matters is the hospital bed capacity rate. The Chicago Tribune and other news outlets have officially announced that we are at the critical point for COVID cases. Models below show that we are on track to run out of ICU beds before Thanksgiving. Be prepared, as the state may begin to take further action this week to curb the spread.

 Be safe, spread the word, and do your part to flatten the curve. Mask up, stay home and save lives!