Weekend Illinois COVID Forecast: A Closer Look
by Sandra Folarin & Jeffrey Softcheck, MBA
As of Sunday, November 1st, there have been 78,458 COVID tests in the past 24 hours in Illinois. There have been 6,980 new tests for a case positivity rate of 8.90% for the day. At this point, the entire state of IL is in mitigation status, as we have exploded for test positivity in the past two weeks.
The ICU bed utilization model that predicted ICU capacity by Thanksgiving has been slightly surpassed. Although deaths are still under what we expected, we’re still averaging 41 deaths per day for the past week. Hospitalizations are up by 90% from four weeks ago. As seen below, ICU utilization has a high correlation with deaths, so it’s extremely important to remain vigilant against the spread of COVID-19.
People continue to be lax with precautions, as multiple Halloween parties were thrown this weekend with more than 20 people and no masks in sight. Local restaurants have also been packed, defying Governor JB Pritkzer’s recent orders to limit indoor dining. IMPACT co-founder, Dr. Shikha Jain has recommended families cancel Thanksgiving this year, especially with family members over 60 years of age unless all parties take careful precautions and isolate for 10-14 days prior to gatherings. Unfortunately, the mortality rate in in the elderly is still way too high. Thanksgiving will lead to a lot of excess unavoidable deaths without extreme caution.
There has been exponential growth in the last few weeks, with double the numbers we are trying to stay under for positivity. This has lead to double the deaths in the past two weeks.
Close your circle as much as possible! COVID-19 is relentless. It is spreading through families, social activities, and is spreading in general. Healthcare workers are concerned, and you should be too. Please remember to do your part in stopping the spread by staying 6 feet apart and masked!
This blog post was adapted from IMPACT Data Specialist Jeffrey Softcheck’s Sunday, Novemeber 1st, 2020 Facebook post. Please see the post here.
Sandra Folarin is currently a first-year medical student at the University of Illinois College of Medicine and is a member of the Urban Medicine Program. She also serves as a medical student intern for the IMPACT Team.